Indonesia’s big coalition declared

A big coalition whose substantial purpose is not yet clear other than just to block the widely popular the incumbent President SBY (Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono) at least in the later stage in the parliament. To block Presiden SBY in the coming presidential election is second to impossible as he and his Partai Demokrat have pocketed the required number of 20 percent minimum:

Indonesia’s Golkar party switched sides Friday to form a broad coalition with opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri in a bid to oust the sitting president in July polls.

Former military chief Wiranto and former special forces commander Prabowo Subianto also announced their participation in the new grouping after a meeting of party heads in central Jakarta.

The parties fared poorly in general elections last month and are hoping that by joining forces, even in an unlikely alliance of erstwhile foes and tainted generals, they will be able to unseat Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and seize power for themselves.

But even as they shook hands and smiled for the cameras the party chiefs were unable to describe a single joint policy and appeared no closer to agreeing on the all-important issue of who they back for president.

Recently held survey even suggests that the big-coalition move will backfire them instead of President SBY:

If an analyst who helped conduct a recent poll for the Democratic Party is to be believed, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s poll numbers are growing in part because other political parties are perceived to be trying to gang up on the Democrats.

In a survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute, or LSI, 66 percent of the almost 1,800 respondents from throughout Indonesia said they would vote for Yudhoyono in the presidential election on July 8. The results are in line with a number of other recent surveys showing the president with a wide lead.

But despite playing from strength as the incumbent coming off a big win for his party in the recent legislative elections, an analyst with the survey group said that Yudhoyono was being perceived by some voters as an underdog.

“Many of Indonesia’s melodramatic voters easily fall for SBY,” said researcher Burhanuddin Muhtadi of LSI, which was commissioned by the Democrats to conduct the survey. “Indonesians have a strong tendency to fall for candidates who they feel are in an unfortunate situation, and Yudhoyono is seen that way.”

He said that recent news of political parties forming coalitions that leave the Democratic Party without a dance partner leave people feeling bad for the president.

“People react as if there is a conspiracy to defeat Yudhoyono’s party, and that makes Indonesians, who are drawn to melodrama, feel pity for him,” Burhanuddin said. This has increased the likely vote for Yudhoyono, he said, along with the more traditional bandwagon effect after the legislative polls.

Can the front-runner also be the underdog? Wonders the Jakarta Globe. The answer is a big yes. Obama is a vivid example where he’s got a big lead in any polls conducted by many pollster from various stripes yet people who supported and admired him  felt so afraid that McCain would steal the victory from him. Hence, their coming in flux to ballot box to make sure Obama’s victory not stolen.

Besides, the big coalition are formed by parties whose track record of people behind them are not at a very good rapport with Indonesian people. Says, for example, Prabowo Subianto, former son in law of former President Soeharto and former commander of Indonesia special forces (Kopassus) known as very arrogant at the last moment of Suharto’s presidency, militeristic in nature and one suspects his extravagance money spent during the campaign might come from Suharto family who may want to come back in power from backdoor. Former President Megawati, whose party PDIP claims to be grassroot people party, but during her two year presidency has sold the state-owned telcom company PT Telkom to Singapore. A policy unseen before and outraged many people. And Golkar party, a party of old; founded by Soeharto regime and used by Suharto to further his ambition to rule Indonesia tyranically and despotically  for 32 years.